As the next crisis dials up the numbers, both self-proclaimed and more professional journalists have been surpassing themselves with predictions, fortune telling and prophecies. Which of these should be considered highly probable, and which have already come true? We are going to answer these questions from the point of view of the future of eCommerce in today's post.
What do the e-commerce opinion leaders think about the situation in Poland?
One of the most accurate and precise scenario methods in strategic management is the Delphi method, which involves listening to the voices of experts in a given area. Our article from the series of pandemic predictions was based mainly on the statements provided in the "E-commerce in Poland 2020" report, created by Gemius. This is a cyclical publication, which for years has been an indicator of trends on the Polish e-commerce market. It is based on experts' opinions summing up the previous year and indicating future directions of development.
Although the study was conducted in late March 2020, when Poland and the world entered the first, most dangerous phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was already known that changes are inevitable, serious, and in many cases dramatically painful. But not for the eCommerce market. It was busy as never before. This is confirmed by Rafał Brzoska, CEO of inPost:
During the pandemic period, interest in online grocery shopping increased. We forecast that this trend will continue its upward trend even after the situation normalizes. Consumers became bolder and more open to new, more convenient delivery channels.
It also turned out that the crisis situation activated a group of buyers so far most resistant to new technologies. They had previously remained in the carefully maintained trenches of the analog lifestyle, but finally the barrier broke. This opinion is shared by the marketing manager of Przelewy24 Magda Grablewska:
Simple and transparent solutions have become even more important. (...) For e-commerce it is a chance to attract a new, wide group of customers. Easy and convenient shopping and payment process are the key factors here.
Regardless of the pandemic, the eCommerce market could still count on an increase in the share of the trade sector and the number of shoppers (by as much as 11 p.p. compared to 2019). According to another report, this time by Colliers International, there were 1.7 thousand new online stores during the four months of 2020. It's hard to say how many of them are likely to persist for at least another year, so it's better to focus on trends concerning specific activities.
Key trends and predictions for the second half of the year
With the removal of restrictions and the arrival of summer, many people no longer think about health risks or do so less frequently. Hence the return of customers to shopping malls and favorite stationary outlets. Certainly the first data for June and mid-July will bring a reversal of the spring tendency of buyers to choose e-stores, but we will have to wait at least until autumn for reliable information.
In the meantime it is worth intensifying efforts to increase competitive advantage over both online and offline rivals. Those who have defended their position and recorded high revenues during the pandemic should invest the financial savings in the automation of internal processes that improve the functioning of logistics facilities and adapt the e-store to mobile browsers. Undoubtedly, both aspects will have a decisive impact on the pace of development of the Polish e-commerce industry in the second half of the crazy year 2020.
